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Institute for International Programs

Non-Communicable Disease and Injuries

Non-communicable Disease and Injuries: Development of a Computer Modeling Program (global)

Preventive interventions can be used to reduce the burden of chronic conditions and injuries. However, countries are often reluctant to invest in prevention because such activities are often perceived to be costly and their gains are not always immediately valued. In addition such activities can carry high uncertainty on their actual effectiveness. The challenge is to identify the preventive strategies that will be most cost effective in specific countries.  A range of constraints will impact the specific choice of preventive services. The same constraints affect secondary and tertiary prevention as well as treatment models.

This activity aims to develop the first-stage of an analytical model to capture the burden of non-communicable diseases and injuries (NCDI) and how the burden is affected by selected interventions in four low- and middle-income countries (Guatemala, Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Kenya). The analytical model will be established in an Excel format to allow easy manipulation and transparency and it will focus on the three key objectives of the WHO Global Monitoring Framework: Surveillance and Monitoring, Prevention and Management, based on the outcome, exposure and health systems targets agreed upon.  The proposed model will provide evidence of reduction in mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes or chronic respiratory diseases. We will be able to compare the reduction suggested from the modeling exercise to the NCD targets suggested from WHO targets.

Task A

Examining the existing global diseases estimates and computer platforms to identify areas of improvement given country specific data and modeling specification has been completed. 

Task B

Identification of 4-5 interventions and estimation of their range of impact and cost to ameliorate the burden of NCDI has been completed, and faculty at JHU are currently working on building the Excel-based analytical model to assess the impact of the identified interventions.

The interventions being focused on include: