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Global Projects


Risk Benefit Assessments

Baltimore, MD, United States


The IGTC has developed individual and population-based models to assess the risks and benefits of nicotine replacement therapy, as well as a specific model for Japan. The aim of this project was to develop a clinically applicable tool, usable in a variety of clinical and prevention settings, for estimating risks for smokers of developing disease:

  1. Risk predictions were made based on an individual’s characteristics including age, sex, race/ethnicity, presence of other risk factors, and presence of key chronic diseases;
  2. A statistical model was used to predict relative risk and cumulative risk for smoking-caused disease and also to estimate the degree of life shortening;
  3. The model also provided estimates of the benefits of smoking cessation, showing change in risk over time and gain in life expectancy;