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Scenario Generation and Analysis

The LiST team at the Bloomberg School received a one-year technical support contract from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The purpose of the contract is to provide technical support to organizations and groups that would like to use LiST to develop scenarios and projections that could help in their strategic planning. While the focus is on large organization and global or regional anaylses, the team is also available to help smaller organizations and projects when time allows. Below we have listed the projects, descriptions and the projection files used for the analyses run to date. For further information about these outputs or to request assistance with running analyses please contact Yvonne Tam at ytam@jhsph.edu.

Project

Description

Baseline Values Assumptions

Zip Files

Lancet Midwifery Series – Paper 2

Scaling up interventions which midwives are capable of, at 4 different levels, with different packages of care

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

UNICEF ARI-DD report v1

Scaling up pneumonia and diarrhea interventions (various packages of only treatment and only preventive interventions) from coverage of the poorest quintile to coverage of the richest quintile to see impact on deaths averted and mortality rates in Bangladesh

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

DOVE v2 Middle Income Countries

Impact of scaling up a combination of vaccines (DTP, Hib, Pneumo, Rota, Measles, Malaria) to 90% in 2015 in 14 middle income countries

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

Save the Children Lancet Child Deaths v.2.1

To estimate the number of U5 lives saved by scaling up coverage of a combination of child health interventions; and to update the Lancet Child Survival estimates from 2003

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

Gates Pneumo

Estimate the pnuemonia deaths averted when scaling up a combination of pneumonia interventions to universal and reasonable coverages in 25 high pneumonia burden countries

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

Save the Children Lancet Child Deaths v.2.2

Estimate the number of U5 lives saved due to each interventions by scaling up coverage to reasonable / achievable targets

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

UNICEF ARI-DD report v2

Scaling up pneumonia and diarrhea interventions  from current national coverage to the richest coverage to see impact on deaths averted and mortality rates

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

GombeProjectAnalysis

Assess the potential impact of a 4-pronged program intervening at delivery in Nigeria

 

Zip Files

Gates Vaccine Routine Immunization Team v1

Impact of scaling up DTP, Hib, Pneumococcal, Rotavirus and Measles vaccines as a combination on U5 pertussis, pneumonia, meningitis, diarrhea, and measles deaths

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

Vaccines Save the Children UK v1

Impact of scaling up DTP, Hib, Pneumococcal, Rotavirus and Measles vaccines as a combination and individually to GVAP and GIVS targets  on U5 deaths, U5 pertussis, pneumonia, meningitis, diarrhea, and measles deaths, and U5 deaths due to each vaccine

MS Word Doc

Zip Files
1 | 2 | 3 | 4

Vaccines Save the Children UK v2

Impact of scaling up DTP, Hib, Pneumococcal, Rotavirus and Measles vaccines as a combination and individually from current national coverage to the richest quintile's coverage on U5 deaths, U5 pertussis, pneumonia, meningitis, diarrhea, and measles deaths, and U5 deaths due to each vaccine

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

PATH Diarrhea

Impact of reasonable scale up of group of interventions that impact diarrhea mortality on diarrhea incidence and mortality

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

DOVE 2 BRICS countries

Impact of scaling up DTP, Hib, Pneumo, Rota on cause specific deaths

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

Save the Children Lancet Child Deaths v.2.3

Produce impact of scaling up a group of interventions to full coverage 99% to be used in costing exercise

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

SaveUK-CCMTK

Assess the impact of including antibiotics for pneumonia in community health worker capabilities

 

Zip Files

Gates Vaccine

Impact of scaling up DTP, Hib, Pneumo, Rota vaccines individually and as a combo to 90%, and scaling the combo to level of current DTP coverage on deaths averted per 1000 vaccinated This was compared to vaccine coverage of 0%.

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

Save the Children MyanmarTo evaluate the impact of child health program in underserved area.

 

 

USAID MNCHAnalysis looking at the impact of different packages of interventions at different coverage levels for 68 low- and middle-income countries.

MS Word Doc

Newer Intervention
Files
1 | 2
Proven Intervention
Files
1 | 2
Coverage Data
UNICEF Pakistan floodEstimate impact of floods on Pakistan mortality for an interagency report. For this, we estimated the number of deaths due to interruption of routine health services.

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

CCP NepalAnalyze impact of 11 family health interventions in 25 districts in Nepal.

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

Gates DOVE

Impact of scaling up DTP, Hib, Pneumo, Rota and Measles vaccines to 90% on U5 deaths averted by cause and life expectancy.

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

Gates McKinsey family health

Impact of scaling up sets of family health interventions to 80%, 90%, 95%, 100% coverage on U5 and maternal deaths, and deaths averted by intervention.

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

GAVI demand forecast

Impact of scaling up DTP, Hib, Pneumo, Rota vaccines as combo on U5 deaths % reduction compared to no scale-up, U5 deaths % reduction compared to 0% coverage, deaths averted by vaccine, deaths averted by disease cause.

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

GAVI demand forecast v.2

Impact of scaling up DTP, Hib, Measles 2nd dose, Pneumo, Rota vaccines as combo on U5 deaths % reduction compared to no scale-up, U5 deaths % reduction compared to 0% coverage, deaths averted by vaccine, and deaths averted by disease cause.

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

DFID malaria

Developed estimates of deaths and cases averted, as well as ITNS, RDTs and ACT doses required to scale up malaria interventions in 22 countries.

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

USAID Pakistan vaccine

Estimate of impact of vaccine scale-up in Pakistan For USAID re-focus on Pakistan for MCHIP 2011.

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

MTI Liberia

To evaluate a 4 year child survival project.

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

GAVI IFFIm

Impact of scaled up coverage of Pentavalent vaccine due to IFFIm funding on U5 deaths averted.

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

CIFF ORS

Analyze impact of ORS and zinc scale up in 3 states in India as part of program planning.

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

GAVI Zambia

To identify the package of interventions that will have the most impact on child mortality reductions in the Luapula province of Zambia, so that these interventions can be used as incentives to supplement the introduction of pneumo vaccine in the province.

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

Gates Malaria

To estimate the impact of scaling up coverage of a package of malaria interventions on U5 and maternal malaria deaths averted in two scale-up scenarios – conservative and according to Roll Back Malaria target.

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

Gates Volt Ethiopia

Estimate the impact of scaling up coverage of a package of interventions' (with or without scaling up the contraceptive prevalence rate, and with or without IPTp recommendation) impact on neonatal, U5, maternal mortality rate, rate of stillbirths, U5 deaths and lives saved in Ethiopia

MS Word Doc

Zip Files

Integration Analysis

These scenarios estimate the impact of scaling up MNCH and family planning on top of HIV and malaria interventions.

 

Zip Files (Spectrum and LiST files)