The goal of this project is to quantify the number of avoided premature deaths in the U.S. and Japan due to increased use of pharmacotherapy and subsequent success in smoking cessation. Smoking cessation has been shown to have a significant impact on longevity, while pharmacotherapy such as the use of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), has been shown to be effective in increasing the likelihood of a successful quit attempt. In a series of analyses for the U.S. and Japan, IGTC has estimated the impact of increased population-wide smoking cessation on premature mortality using country-specific estimates of smoking relative risks, mortality rates and quitting behavior.
The goal of this project is to develop a clinically applicable tool, usable in a variety of clinical and prevention settings, for estimating smokers' risks of developing disease. This tool will have the following characteristics:
- Risk predictions would be made based on an individual’s characteristics, including age, sex, race/ethnicity, presence of other risk factors, and presence of key chronic diseases
- A statistical model would be used to predict relative risk and cumulative risk for smoking-caused disease, as well as to estimate the degree of life shortening
- The model would also provide estimates of the benefits of smoking cessation, showing change in risk over time and gain in life expectancy (to be added)
- The model estimates would be provided in a format that could be readily interpreted by physicians and communicated to their patients
Health Risk Assessor | 
